This week Natural gas counter has been trading higher on MCX and this morning Natural gas was seen trading in green. March contract of Natural Gas was seen trading above 200 on MCX. Price action suggested that traders were looking for bullish EIA storage report which is released every Thursday morning at 10.00 am ET.

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Weather forecast


Based on NatGasWeather, The Global Forecast System (GFS) added 15 heating degree days (HDD) to the outlook while the European model trended warmer to drop 7-8 HDDs compared to Monday’s data.

Looking at the weather this week and next, US will expect cold blast turning warmer later next week which would definitely mean less consumption of Natural Gas.

EIA Storage Report released today


Traders were expecting more huge withdrawals for the week ending Feb 22.  Reuters was expecting a withdrawal range of 160 Bcf to 179 Bcf, and a median of 171 Bcf.

Bloomberg was looking for a withdrawal range of 165 Bcf to 180 Bcf, with a median draw of 173 Bcf. Natural Gas Intelligence has estimated a withdrawal of 167 Bcf.

Based on the report released this week, working gas in storage was 1,539 Bcf as of Friday, February 22, 2019, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 166 Bcf from the previous week. Read here

This was more or less in line with expectations and doesn’t seemed to support the current price rally.

Price Forecast

#EIA storage report 

Natural Gas counter has been trying to rally since it has been trading at this level was quite some time. Looking at the weather and EIA storage report, the expected rally might fizzle and I am expecting this counter to trade in range.

The 200-202 is a resistance level and has been pushing buyers where in 192 is acting as massive support.

I would be very cautious selling around 192 but the current market price would be a great rate for a seller to jump-in

A rally till 210 is long overdue and I would looking for a high number to create a short position

Trading tip – Sell on rise strategy for every trader. Buying in this market could be risky.
#EIA storage report 

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