Indian Rupee (INR) was trading 8 paisa low this morning at 71.19 against dollar. USD INR has been quite volatile and have been seen new lows last year.

Rupee closed at 71.11 yesterday and it has been stable since morning, trying to trade in green.

This year started with recovery since we saw Crude Oil prices falling sharply due to high production

Yesterday, all emerging market currencies were trading with strength due weakness in dollar index.

USD INR - Forex tdaytrading tips - Generatebucks
With government working on presenting the budget this Friday, it is expected that if we can reduction in taxes for citizens than this will definitely affect the Indian Rupee and we can expect a downside trend for short-term.

Effective tax rates have not been changed much in the past 10 years, it is expected that since this is a budget before elections, we can expect the tax rates to change. This move might support the current government in elections so this could be on cards. Most traders have an eye for FOMC meeting today and the budget this Friday.

Rupee has been trading in a range and with Crude Oil prices trading in range and global cues supporting emerging markets, we can expect this range to continue.

Crude Oil prices were seen shining this morning after US government slapped sanctions on Venenzula’s state-owned oil firm PDVSA in a move aimed at severely
curbing the OPEC member's crude exports to the United States.Read more here


Forecast


With Crude Oil prices opening in green, we saw a decline in USD INR. I expect for the coming week we can expect a correction in Crude Oil prices.

I expect a range bound trade in USD INR for this week. Buy USD INR today at 71.00 for target of 71.30 and stop loss of 70.80. Since it is trading in range, I suggest selling USD INR at 71.30 this for target of 71.00 with SL of 71.50

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